Blog #1: Laine to MTL, St. Louis Offer Sheet Drama and Beniers' extension

August 23rd, 2024,

Patrick Laine

Cam: 

Yesterday, we saw the fundamental structure of the Montreal Canadiens shift. The Montreal canadiens traded with the Columbus blue jackets to acquire forward Patrick Laine.

Adding former 2016 2nd overall pick Patrick Laine to the roster creates a dual-scoring threat that the Habs have lacked for the last two years, primarily relying on Caufield to be the lone natural goal scorer. With this move, I believe that while this addition pushes players such as Anderson, Roy or Newhook further down the lineup (depending on the lineup), the largest impact will be taking the pressure off of Caufield. While there is always the long-term potential for Caufield to be the #1 option, facing an NHL’s top D pairing every night proved to take a toll on the effectiveness of his scoring. 

I see this move as low risk with immense upside. While I am hopeful laine can produce near a point per game pace, i believe it is highly unlikely that we see him for a full 82 games. Nonetheless, adding a 26 year old player who has performed at a 35 goal pace over the course of his 480 game career will certainly help create a more balanced attack. 

I believe that from a tactical standpoint, adding Laine will do wonders for the Habs powerplay with multiple dangerous options. Objectively, laine has a better one-timer than caufield. Here are a couple of options. 

1. I believe that shifting Suzuki down to the bumper position and moving Caufield over to the right side allows for every player to be better leveraged. Suzuki is the most adaptable of the group and has the soft skills needed to get passes through, Caufield has an elite snapshot that can find its way through traffic, and Laine can sit on his perch waiting for the perfect pass. 

2. If the habs decide they want a duel threat powerplay, then moving caufield to the 2nd unit could be an option where hutson and roy find him for dangerous looks against a weaker opponent.

For those who think Laine isn’t the 44 goal scorer he once was, over the last 3 years, laine has been ranked 39th in the NHL in goals/60 over (via Datadrivenhockey), which puts him ahead of players such as Larkin, Petterson and Caufield… To me, even if the Habs get him for 60 games, he’s putting up close to 30 goals and allowing other premier shooters better matchups, making the Montreal Canadiens considerably better entering the 2024-2025 season.

Justin: 

To reiterate what Cam said, this move has a ton of upside with very little risk. Could there be a scenario where Laine doesn’t eclipse 25 goals in a season during his time with the Canadiens? Absolutely. But does that matter? Not Exactly.

Kent Hughes made it very clear during his press conference that Laine's success with the Canadiens will not be determined by how many points or goals he puts up. I think Habs fans should temper their expectations and prepare to see a different version of Laine—one who is more focused on helping his team win than just finding the back of the net.

From an individual perspective, the Habs are acquiring a very special player, one who can change the outcome of a game with his powerful and accurate shot. You might be wondering: how is his skill set different from what Caufield brings to the table? The main difference lies in the sheer power of Laine's shot. On any given attempt from anywhere in the offensive zone, Laine has the ability to beat the goalie clean. While we've seen Caufield make significant strides in rounding out his overall game, he doesn’t have the same level of power in his shot that Laine possesses. Together, these two players will complement the existing Montreal Canadiens lineup, providing two lethal options in the top six who could potentially combine for a total of 70 goals each season.

I won’t delve into the power play, as Cam has already shared his thoughts, but there are still burning questions about who might be the odd man out and where each player will fit. I can envision a scenario where St. Louis breaks the units into 1A and 1B because of Caufield and Laine’s similar skill sets. Additionally, they both shoot right, making it challenging to determine which one will be on their one-timer side.

All in all, this trade earns an unbiased A+ from me. Kent Hughes clearly has a vision for this team, and he is being aggressive in executing it. He stated that they addressed the need for talent up front in the draft by selecting Ivan Demidov 5th overall, but he stayed true to his word by adding a forward before the 2024-25 season. That’s exactly what we like to see.

Offer Sheet Silence

Cam: 

If you has asked me what i thought the oilers would do when two of their younger roster players where offer-sheeted, nothing would definitely not been my answer. 

When looking at their moves during the 7 days prior to the offer-sheet deadline, everything pointed to them keeping defenceman Philip Broberg and allowing Dylan Holloway to become a member of the St. Louis Blues. They traded for forward Vasily Podkohlzin from the vancouver canucks and moved on from defenceman Cody Ceci, sending him to the San Jose Sharks. They also acquired right shot defenceman Ty Emberson helping maintain a balance on the backened as well as prospect Paul Fischer who had a strong freshman season at Notre Dame. 

While Broberg’s contract would have been nearly twice the salary of Holloway’s, I believe that the best decision would have been to match Broberg. The potential growth that remains in his game, demonstrated by his play in the stanley cup finals is something worth betting on. 6’4” smooth skating defencemen with quality puck moving ability do not come along very often. Ekholm cannot be your #2 forever, Nurse is at best a #4 dman and their pipeline on the left side is bare to say the least. Even though the oilers need to have a win now mindset, it’s hard not to see Broberg as an invaluable piece considering the offer sheet return.

Justin:

I can't express enough how much I love this move by the St. Louis Blues and Doug Armstrong. Armstrong, now in his 15th season as an NHL GM, didn't hesitate to submit offer sheets to both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg—players who Edmonton Oilers fans thought would be integral to their future being picked 14th and 8th overall respectively.

While I don't believe these moves are franchise-altering for the Blues, they make a lot of sense given their current situation. Additionally, these moves allowed Armstrong to capitalize on the Oilers' challenging cap situation. According to puckpedia.com, the oilers have have just south of 950K in cap space entering the 2024-25 season which would of required acrobatics from GM Stan Bowman.

Looking up and down their current forward group, the Blues have a lot of young talent, including Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Pavel Buchnevich. What I love most about these moves is that Holloway fits perfectly into the timeline from an age standpoint. The four players mentioned above have an average age of 25.5 years, and Holloway, at 22, is entering an environment that will allow him to acclimate quickly without being pushed down the Edmonton Oilers lineup—a team that acquired Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson earlier in the offseason. Holloway will immediately step into a second line role with power play time, a significant upgrade from the 11:22 TOI he averaged in 38 games last season.

As for Philip Broberg, I believe that the $4.5M AAV is a bit steep, and I think the Oilers made the right call by not matching it. However, I believe this is a lose-lose situation for the Oilers. They either had to overpay for a player who hasn’t panned out in their system, or they have to give up on a player who might have been finding his stride late in his Oilers career. Although I agree with Cam that the 23-year-old left-shot defenseman still has room to grow, I’m not convinced we would have seen that development in Edmonton. With Nurse locked up on that burdensome contract until 2030 and Ekholm signed for two more years as Bouchard’s locked-in D partner, $4.5M AAV was too much to invest in for a young defenseman who was destined for the third pairing. Now, Broberg has the opportunity to play big minutes on an aging D-core that could use some fresh legs. Aside from Scott Perunovich, the Blues don’t have a defenseman under the age of 27(!). It wouldn't surprise me in the least if broberg is able to thrive in his new environment and make the oilers regret their decision. 

All in all, this is a great fit for Holloway, Broberg, and the Blues. While it may not be a move that immediately elevates the team to Stanley Cup contention, Armstrong is ensuring that the building blocks are in place for when this team is ready to compete.

Beniers Signs Long-Term

Cam:

On Tuesday, we saw the Seattle kraken sign budding star Matty beniers to a 7 year contract  with a 7.14 million AAV. This contract works well for both sides but it is certainly a team friendly deal. Beniers could have taken a bridge deal and bet on himself after he had a bit of a sophomore slump last year. Especially considering a system run by new head coach Dan balsam will likely give him more offensive freedom. Instead, he chose to give his team financial flexibility and gain long-term security. 

Historically, big time players such as Beniers have two major contracts during their career. When this contract concludes, he will be 28 years old and will likely have just had two of his most productive seasons.  So even though he left some money on the table, he will have an opportunity to cash out. To me I see this as beniers buying into having a chance to win during his most productive years. Similar to the contract culture that has been brought to Montreal with core forwards (Suz, Cole & Slaf), Seattle is building something with their roster that is much bigger than maximizing each players bank account. As a teammate, if  I see beniers sign that contract, I’m pumped to see his commitment to bring Seattle their first cup.

Justin:

The Seattle Kraken get a big thumbs up for this signing. Matty Beniers, on the other hand... not so much. At 21 years old, it must have been tough for him to turn down a deal worth over $7 million per year for the next seven years. However, like others before him, such as Jack Hughes and Matthew Boldy, Beniers could have easily bet on himself and commanded north of $8.5 million AAV two years from now. 

I admire this deal from Beniers' perspective, as it provides him with financial security while also sending a clear message to his team that he is committed to winning. However, if I were to play devil's advocate and look at this deal from an individual perspective, Beniers has already proven that he’s a gamer and will live up to his status as a 2nd overall pick. His production during the 2022-23 season, where he put up 57 points in 80 games and 7 points in 14 playoff games, was impressive. I don't see a scenario where Beniers regresses from last season. In fact, I believe there's a strong possibility that Beniers will exceed his career high of 57 points in the 2024-25 season, with the potential to reach 70 points. With the additions of Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour, 70 points is well within reach. This might make Beniers and his agent reconsider committing to a big payday so early in his career.